Back in 1995 there was considerable talk about a little programming language called Java. This sucker was going to be so revolutionary that it would make the invention of the personal computer look insignificant. Suddenly everyone would own nothing more than Java terminals, run Java operating system, Java applications, and store everything out on the network. We know now that Java did not live up to a fraction of what Sun hoped. And, if we are lucky, Microsoft's ".Net" will suffer the same fate.
don't bet on dot net 11 march, 2002
by johnmichael patrick monty monteithMost consumers never understood the Java concept. It was a return of the mainframe model of computing that dominated a decade earlier. Chief Information Officers everywhere read the Sun Microsystems papers and were led to believe that soon their I.T. budgets would drop significantly as they would soon be buying terminals again. At the same time, the general public gave a middle finger salute to this concept by continuing to purchase Microsoft personal computers to join the Internet revolution. Sun could never fully communicate the Java concept, nor could they make it fly with Microsoft controlling the browser world, so Java never got a chance to do what Sun promised. Amusingly, Sun, bitter that Microsoft killed Java, is attempting to return the favor to their pals in Redmond.
Sun has signed up some big names to join their own version of .Net in an attempt to stop Microsoft from taking over the Internet through this new concept. The hope is that by having all of the major commercial players already signed up with Sun that Microsoft's product would be dead before it ever materialized. However, I am not certain Sun needs to worry too much about it. The product may be dead without them doing anything. Let me explain:
Today nearly every household already owns a personal computer. Sales of these systems have started to slip this year, and is expected to continue to decline. While Windows XP might represent a major improvement in Microsoft operating systems, despite what the Microsoft spin doctors might have you believe, sales have not been as brisk as most would expect. That is because most people do not 'upgrade' their operating system - they buy a computer with it already installed. And since everyone already owns computers that do just fine with email and web browsing, what is the incentive? An operating system that will not crash and boots faster for a hundred bucks? Most would rather spend the money on a few new DVD's.
Now enter .Net. What is it? Consumers have no idea. Why should someone purchase another Microsoft operating system to get it? Well, since you asked, I will bore you with an answer.
The "dot Net" concept is Microsoft's attempt to control "Web Services". Through use of a number of standard protocols (SOAP, XML, etc), Microsoft creates servers, applications, and operating systems that will allow you to exchange data to and from anywhere with ease. Need to get your car repaired? When you visit your auto mechanics web site to schedule the repair, the site could automatically download your auto problems from your log in Excel, look up your free day in your schedule in Outlook, and grab your credit card information through your Microsoft Passport. Your car repair scheduled, communicated and paid for with one press of the button, saving you a couple minutes of time. Sounds like what everyone is waiting for, right?
Which brings me to the real reason .Net will amount to little more than Java did. It is an answer to a problem no one is having. Do I really want my mechanic to know my next free day in my Exchange Server calendar? Do I really want data about me or for me passing in the background of web sites I am using? No. I am perfectly happy typing out that information when and where I want it handed out. Whatever time it would save me would be but a few seconds of my day, versus the peace of mind I have knowing that information is mine, and mine only.
To Microsoft, commercial web sites simply ARE the web. Therefore, when Redmond execs talk about this stuff changing the Internet world, they are really talking about it changing the commercial end of the Internet world. The fact that the vast majority of web sites out there are non-commercial is quite oblivious to the folks on the "East Side" (as they are referred to in the Seattle area.)
Yes, .Net will survive. Yes, it does have a purpose. .Net will be a service that will assist web designers and online stores. Initially it will be nothing more than a way for Microsoft to peddle their Passport information to eCommerce sites willing to work with Bill & Co. Later, it will start serving up additional information for online stores and other commercial web sites that need key pieces of information. But, it is highly unlikely that anyone will actually "see" the difference .Net makes to the web. They will be there, but they are not visible, not utopian, and generally not something people will care that much about. Hence the reason, it will not make that significant of a difference to the end web user. It may ultimately save you the trouble of typing in your credit card information when you visit a new web site. Exciting, huh?
Well, here I have bored you by typing a few hundred words about .Net and you probably do not understand it any better than before you read this crap. No worries. It is better this way, anyway. If we are lucky, none of us will ever really know what it is.
