what will go wrong next 24 of december, 1996 by johnmichael patrick monty monteith

Only a day after writing my last commentary about the possibility of Apple entering the WinTel market, Apple made their move. They acquired NeXT computer and Steve Jobs. In a single day Apple proved a number of my points right, and made me re-think two of them. First, it looks as though Apple will be entering the WinTel market as the previous article mentioned, but not on the coat tails of a Microsoft product. And secondly, I wrote that this might be the time to invest in Apple stock. I said that in light of the possibility that Apple might move to a well accepted OS. Since that is not going to happen now, I really hope you didn’t listen to me.

A joint NeXT and Mac OS is perhaps the worst possible choice for Apple. Not only did NeXT cost Apple 100 million more than the Be OS, they get far less for their dollar. NeXT Step does not support multiple processors, it has many internal bugs and conflicts, and it is already a bloated operating system. Gee, the Mac OS already supports these three features, and one of the points of purchasing a new OS was to get rid of them, not buy into more of the same. Perhaps worst of all for current Mac owners is that NeXT only supports Intel hardware. That means possible delays in a PowerPC version, and an acceptance of the fact that the Intel market has had for years what Mac owners must wait for.

Rumors have been that it would take a year to develop a PowerPC version of this new fictional OS. That is a very ambitious estimate. A completely native PowerPC version which is not over-bloated, buggy, and supports all of the features the Be OS currently has, would take at least two years. Longer if you consider the small size and finances available to Apple. In essence, we may see Windows 2000 before we see a completely new Mac OS that operates on today’s PowerPC machines. Apple couldn’t even get Copland to fly with four years of trying. What makes that Cupertino company think it can convert an Intel OS over to the PowerPC and add all of the software pieces it is missing in any short amount of time? If this does not scare consumers from buying a Mac, I don’t know what could.

If Apple puts the timing of the OS release as the priority, then all you will see is a Mac OS 7 slapped with the NeXT interface. May look pretty, but hardly will be the speed demon Mac users are waiting for. If they choose to use NeXTstep with a Mac emulator slapped on top, it could take even longer to develop, and compatibility could be questionable. Either way, Amelio has the choice of shipping a product which still does not live up to expectations, or release a product which meets expectations but is two years overdue. (Hardly a big deal when you consider OS 8 is already more than two years late.)

The worst part of this whole deal, however, is not the OS woes that Apple is about to embark on. It is the fact that Steve Jobs is once again allowed to continue to ruin the Macintosh. If there is a way to screw up this small market any more, Jobs will find a way to do it. This is the same man that declared the Macintosh dead, and now you want to hire him back? This is the same man that ruined any chance NeXT might have had by spending millions and months of time just trying to make the NeXT black box into a perfect square. He spent millions on the trendy little NeXT logo. He lost millions because he pre-determined which people would be allowed to buy his machine, and which would not. NeXT has consistently lost money, from the very beginning to it’s very end. That’s why Apple could buy it for pennies on the dollar. It is not worth half what Apple paid for it.

Historically, NeXT is a bad apple. NeXT was competing in a market which they should have easily won. NeXT should have been an easy money maker. The market was a captive audience of higher education, and the only competition was Sun which has seemingly always been profitable in the market. What could go wrong? Steve Jobs, that’s what. Jobs was never a visionary, and never able to figure out the business end of computer sales. This guy simply does what he wants to do, and tries to market it and himself as the trendy choice. There was a reason Steve was fired, you know. He is a product of the early days of Apple where Macs were over priced and under powered. And that is exactly what the NeXT OS is: over priced and under powered. In a boxing match, the Be OS might have been able to give Microsoft a hell of a fight. NeXT won’t last a single round against Windows NT.

Then there is the question of why Apple would spend 400 million on an OS which is completely incompatible with the current Macintosh hardware. There are so many operating systems that have as many advantages as the NeXT OS and could have been purchased for far less money. Why not pick up the remaining bits of the Amiga Workbench OS? It could have been had for a steal compared to NeXT, is already optimized for Motorola processors (therefore could be backward compatible to even the 68040 Macs), and is not nearly the bloated mess that NeXT Step is. Or how about a spin off of OS/2? IBM surely would have made a deal that could have saved not only the Macintosh OS blues, but even their Intel version. Then there is the biggest question mark of all: the Be OS. Less money, more features, and it did not leave the nasty hang-over of Steve Jobs being allowed to roam freely in Cupertino.

It amazes me that Amelio would make this mistake. Most Macintosh owners I speak to are shocked that a Be OS acquisition didn’t happen. Instead, Apple spent a hundred million more for an OS that only runs on Intel hardware. Obviously Apple’s priorities have already switched to the WinTel market. But, to top it all off, they have brought back one of the worst things to ever happen to Apple Computer. When you ask what could go wrong next, all we need do is ask Jobs what his plans are and you will have your answer.