david pogue - apple doomsday 25 of december, 1997 by johnmichael patrick monty monteith

This is a new feature at the Sanity Pages. Read my personal responses to other articles written in the industry. Let me know what you think, and whether I should continue to publish these. With permission we will publish any responses by the original author for your reading enjoyment.

The following is in response to a new commentary by David Pogue regarding the possibility of an Apple Doomsday scenario.

His article can be found at: The MacWorld Web Site.

(It is an excelent article. Read it before reading my response.)

 

Dear Mr. Pogue:

I always enjoy your articles and commentaries, as a fellow Macintosh fan, and as a writer and theatre artist. Actually, I was sort of surprised to watch these words show up from work written by you knowing that your knowledge of computer history is more accurate than what was stated in your most recent work, "The Desktop Critic: The Apple Doomsday Scenario ". In fact, the "Apple Doomsday Scenario" is unfortunately very possible, especially in light of where you have ignored history:

> Another reason why the Atari scenario isn't convincing: The Atari never had a huge following of fanatics like the Mac's.

That obviously is a statement from someone who never knew the Atari market. In fact, Atari and Amiga fans were far MORE fanatical (and still are, a true testament to their crazed minds) than any Mac fans I have known. I worked in retail for five years, and there wasn't a single Mac fanatic which is even in the same league as your average Atari or Amiga fan. I watched an Atari and Amiga fan get into a fist fight over an argument on which machine was better at graphic animation. These people make Guy Kawasaki look as emotional as Al Gore.

A more accurate estimation would be that their fanaticism was part of the reason their respective machines did not make it. People are turned off by over-enthusiasm. Look at the Pepsi campaign as an example. Pepsi Cola since it has started it's anti-Coke campaign has headed in only one direction, and Coke has also moved in only one direction. Or look at any presidential candidate and what occurs when they use anti-competition enthusiasm. It leaves a bad taste in people's mouths, and ultimately they go in the direction the campaign was urging them to avoid. The Evangelistas have probably done as much to hurt the Apple cause as they have helped it.

Remember the Atari "Revolution"? Essentially the same as the Apple Evangalistas, although technically the "Revolution" was far more enthusiastic (bordering on militaristic). These Atari owners were insane in their enthusiasm for their machine. In the words of John Dvorak, "they made Apple owners look like PC owners."

Anyway, I digress. My point being that any statement saying Apple owners are more enthusiastic than Atari owners is just plain lies. I still get emails from Atari and Amiga owners that swear they will never stop using their machines. And, they haven't.

> Nor did the Atari gain total domination of important markets ...

This too is another example of how I am surprised that you have ignored history. In fact, Atari owned far more important markets than Apple ever has. They have controlled large percentages of foreign markets, and at one time had a much more well known brand name than Apple. In parts of Europe they had the majority of the market share. Entire countries were Atari market share driven. If you look at history you too would say that Atari has had more domination of important markets than Apple Computer has ever had. Especially when you acknowledge their strong presence in Europe to this day. Your statement can only be given even slight credibility when looked at from a purely U.S. market point of view. When looked at from a global perspective, it is just plain wrong. The computer market is happening in more than the United States, as I am sure you are aware. Even in the United States the name "Atari" was far more well known than "Apple" until only a few years ago.

At this point Apple's survival truly does require the benevolence of Microsoft, as your article hints at. Microsoft does not want Apple to disappear, and has significantly helped keep Apple alive. Although there is no question the patient is technically alive, one certainly could make the case that it has been brain dead for a couple of years. The company has done nothing to change it's downward spiral, and there has been no concrete evidence to this day that Apple will turn around their failing corporate direction (or lack their of). Great computers. Idiot company.

(Funny. That is what Amiga and Atari owners have said for years.)

So, as you can see, if you actually look at the history, your article only proves the possibility of the "Apple Doomsday Scenario". I still hold hope that Apple will find their way, even if Microsoft has to keep administering life support for the rest Apple's natural life. But, no matter how much you change the past, the fact will remain that Apple has been heading in the same direction as Atari and Commodore. Maybe a little slower. Yet you can not convincingly argue against the evidence that the direction is still there. One only needs to look at the stock price for real historical proof. Although I suppose with a little creative editing, even that could be changed.

--Monty